Summary: While financial markets swirl from headline to headline, underlying economic data remains slow to materialize the fears that are driving daily price action. Consumer spending continues to increase and while some employment levels like initial claims flash, total unemployment remains low. Business and consumer sentiment is still unfavorable, but business capex and employment spending … Read more
Summary: We close out April on strong negative market sentiment, with the S & P 500 losing 10% over the course of the month. The Nasdaq has had its worst month since 2018. Volatility caused by recession anxiety are headlined by a prolonged Russian war in Ukraine, continued increasing inflation expectations and fears of the … Read more
Summary: Through the lens of lagged economic data, we see a picture of an economy with a tight labor environment, high consumer demand and a strong housing market. Not too many data releases last over the last month, but there was enough confirmation for the FED to begin rate hikes as expected. FED balance sheet … Read more
Summary: The Russian invasion of Ukraine has skewed markets towards volatility, inflation and uncertainty. An indeterminate resolution that drags over weeks or months will increase the likelihood of long standing impact to markets. Parsing out the unknowable resolution to the war in Ukraine, we see a US economy that is continuing to push towards normalization. … Read more
Summary: Data shows a US recovery that is mostly past the pandemic. Certain indicators are still showing depressed levels, but recovery is undeniable. With inflation hitting wages, transitory arguments weaken, prompting a need for rate hikes. However, given the unprecedented level of both fiscal and monetary stimulus that was injected into the system, the effects … Read more
Global equity index ends higher after weather late week sell off. SP500 essentially flat, FTSE 100 still pumping, along with Canadian equities. In FX, USD widely devalues across pairs, with Pound showing strongest gains against. US new job postings have found a range in last few months. Commodity price inflation resumes with prices approaching fall … Read more
Global equities index remains within recent range with volatility causing deviations across international markets. SP500 sells off, while FTSE 100 sees risk appetite increase. The dollar sees significant devaluation against the pound. New job posting numbers in the US sees a large range over holiday period. REITs don’t escape this correction. In commodities food crops … Read more
Equity markets give up gains from last week. USD strengthens across block. Large increase in new job postings on indeed.com into December holiday season. REITs maintain amidst equity sell off. Agriculture and energy prices rise while metals sink lower. In US Treasuries, short yields see some upwards pressure but overall curve flattens. Inflation expectations continue … Read more
Sharp recovery over the week in global equity markets. Dollar sees some devaluation against commodity pairs, otherwise relatively quiet week. New job postings on Indeed.com tank after Black Friday. Staple crop prices back on rise, along with energy prices. Metals remain in range. In US yields, intermediate yields break out, increasing curvature as short and … Read more
Global equity sell off continues into third week. Dollar remains mixed amidst global volatility. New job postings spike on week ending of 11/26. REITS see high levels of volatility as well. Commodities see price deflation. US yield curve flattens. 10 year yields lower. Consumer yields hold up better. Inflation expectations lower. Crypto sells off in … Read more