Summary: Another month of inflation watching in the books. The housing market downturn still seems to be picking up speed. Job markets remain surprisingly strong, however, with another month of decreasing job losers and increasing job leavers. The consumer is preparing for recession regardless, increasing their savings rate and cutting spending. Individuals and Households Consumer … Read more
Summary: The tight labor market points to a late cycle economy with prices increasing 6.3% in the last CPI release. Retail consumption is dropping, household debt is increasing, economic supply chains are seeing less activity, and housing activity is down across the board. Consumer cash levels remain high, money market levels are at record highs, … Read more
Summary: Recessions are seemingly universally agreed upon for the 2023 year, however risk markets have found ways to squeeze higher to close out November. There may be some foreshadowing of pain ahead in this month’s releases, in the higher loan delinquency rates across all customer segments. But while personal savings rates have cratered to below … Read more
Summary: Borrowing rates are sharply higher, but consumer credit continues to expand. The housing market continues to be the strongest real economy sign of an impending downturn as housing inventories rise and prices decline. Metrics of supply chain activity down as well. Initial claims are starting to trend higher, while net unemployment has decreased again. … Read more
Summary: While prices of energy and food continue to rise on an index level, we are starting to see material decreases in the prices of the components of the indices. We still see spending increases, as well as consumer credit growth. Large purchases such as car and home sales decline. Business sentiments seem to be … Read more
Summary: Inflation softened somewhat in July 2022, prompting hopes of a FED pivot. 12-month PCE dropped back to 6.3%, from peak levels of 6.8%. In this month’s releases, we see slowdowns in US housing markets. The latest data shows unemployment at 3.5%, still decreasing month over month. Rental vacancies have hit low levels unseen in … Read more
Summary: The FED continues to fight inflation with rate hikes, and markets pricing in FED capitulation sometime in early 2023. While inflation seems unaffected so far, economic growth has slowed. Consumer credit growth is slowing, certain spending areas are declining, and savings are going back up. Both business and consumer sentiments continue to be poor. … Read more
Summary: Consumer spending continues to increase, total unemployment remains low. Business and consumer sentiment is still unfavorable, but business capex and employment spending expectations are back on a growth path. Inflation remains the biggest threat, with perhaps the most worrying trends from this set of data release being the extreme decline in personal savings of … Read more
Summary: We close out April with the S & P 500 losing 10% over the course of the month. The Nasdaq has had its worst month since 2018. Volatility caused by recession anxiety is headlined by a prolonged Russian war in Ukraine, continued increasing inflation expectations and fears of the FED making a policy mistake. … Read more
Summary: US economy experiencing a tight labor environment, high consumer demand and a strong housing market. FED to begin rate hikes as expected. Both businesses and households expecting worsening economic conditions on the headwinds of inflation and geopolitical turmoil. Wage growth will be an essential metric of things to come. Individuals and Households Consumer loans … Read more