Currency Outlook Week of 12/21/2020

Consolidated Calendar

 12/21/202012/22/202012/23/202012/24/202012/25/2020
USAGDP Annualized, Existing Home Sales (MoM)Durable Goods, Capital Goods, Initial Claims, New Home Sales (MoM), Mich CSI 
JPN BoJ Meeing Minutes    
UK GDP (MoM)   
CAN   Building Permits 
AUSRetail SalesTrade Balance   

Correlation Table

DXY

Major Pairs

USD/JPY

Last Close: 103.30

Trend Chart: Short

Price Basket: Short

Yield Curve: Long

12/17 (red) vs 12/11

CoT:

  • USD – Short
  • YEN – Long

Key Levels:

  • Resistance – 104.66
  • Support – 102.92

Central Banks Stance:

  • FED – Dovish (Short)
  • BoJ – Dovish (Long)

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.64, 0.66

Geopolitical Risk :

  • USA – Stimulus talks
  • JPN – Trade tensions

Overall Outlook: Neutral/Short

GBP/USD

Last Close: 1.3522

Trend Chart: Long

Price Basket: Neutral

Yield Curve: Long

12/16 (red) vs 12/11

CoT:

  • GBP – Long
  • USD – Short

Key Levels:

  • Resistance – 1.3625
  • Support – 1.3151

Central Banks Stance:

  • BoE – Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0180, 0.0193

Geopolitical Risk:

  • UK – Brexit Negotiations

Overall Outlook: Short

Commodity Pairs

USD/CAD

Last Close: 1.2785

Trend Chart: Short

Price Basket: Long

Yield Curve: Short

12/17 (green) vs 12/11

CoT:

  • USD – Short
  • CAD – Long

Key Levels:

  • Resistance – 1.3115
  • Support – 1.2684

Central Banks Stance:

  • BoC: Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0088, 0.0088

Commodity Stance:

  • Metals: Short
  • Oil/Energy: Short

Geopolitical Risk: N/A

Overall Outlook: Neutral/Long

AUD/USD

Last Close: 0.7621

Trend Chart: Long

Price Basket: Neutral

Yield Curve: Neutral

12/17 (red) vs 12/11

CoT:

  • AUD: Neutral
  • USD: Short

Key Levels:

  • Resistance: 0.7639
  • Support: 0.7315

Central Banks Stance:

  • RBA: Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.00628, 0.0065

Commodity Stance:

  • Metals: Long

Geopolitical Risk: N/A

Overall Outlook: Neutral

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