Currency Outlook Week of 12/14/2020

Consolidated Calendar

 12/14/202012/15/202012/16/202012/17/202012/18/2020
USA Retail Sales, FOMC Economic Projections, FED Monetary Policy Statement, Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Press ConferenceBuilding Permits, Initial Jobless Claims 
JPN Tankan Large Manufacturing Index   BoJ Monetary Policy Statement, BoJ Interest Rate DecisionBoJ Press Conference
UKClaimant Count Change, ILO Unemployment Rate CPI, Markit Services PMIBoE Interest Rate Decision, BoE Minutes, BoE Asset Purchase Facility  
CAN  Governor Macklem’s Speech BoC CPI Retail Sales
AUS RBA Meeting Minutes Employment Change, Unemployment Rate   

Correlation Table

DXY

Major Pairs

USD/JPY

Last Close: 104.21

Trend Chart: Short

Price Basket: Short

Yield Curve: Long

12/10 (green) vs 12/04

CoT:

  • USD – Short
  • YEN – Long

Key Levels:

  • Resistance – 104.80
  • Support – 103.45

Central Banks Stance:

  • FED – Dovish (Short)
  • BoJ – Dovish (Long)

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.41, 0.43

Geopolitical Risk :

  • USA – Civil unrest, stimulus talks
  • JPN – Trade tensions

Overall Outlook: Neutral

GBP/USD

Last Close: 1.3293

Trend Chart: Long

Price Basket: Neutral

Yield Curve: Short

12/09 (teal) vs 12/04

CoT:

  • GBP – Long
  • USD – Short

Key Levels:

  • Resistance – 1.3536
  • Support – 1.3109

Central Banks Stance:

  • BoE – Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0184, 0.0196

Geopolitical Risk:

  • UK – Brexit Negotiations

Overall Outlook: Short

Commodity Pairs

USD/CAD

Last Close: 1.2776

Trend Chart: Short

Price Basket: Neutral

Yield Curve: Neutral

12/10 (red) vs 12/04

CoT:

  • USD – Short
  • CAD – Long

Key Levels:

  • Resistance – 1.3152
  • Support – 1.2713

Central Banks Stance:

  • BoC: Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0089, 0.0096

Commodity Stance:

  • Metals: Short
  • Oil/Energy: Short

Geopolitical Risk: N/A

Overall Outlook: Neutral

AUD/USD

Last Close: 0.7533

Trend Chart: Long

Price Basket: Long

Yield Curve: Long

12/10 (green) vs 12/04

CoT:

  • AUD: Neutral
  • USD: Short

Key Levels:

  • Resistance: 0.7574
  • Support: 0.7270

Central Banks Stance:

  • RBA: Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0088, 0.0096

Commodity Stance:

  • Metals: Long

Geopolitical Risk: N/A

Overall Outlook: Neutral

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