Currency Outlook Week of 12/07/2020

Consolidated Calendar

 12/07/202012/08/202012/09/202012/10/202012/11/2020
USA  JOLTS Job OpeningsInitial Claims, CPI Data Michigan CSI
JPNGDP (QoQ), Current Account    
UK  Manufacturing Production, Industrial Production, GDP (MoM) 
CAN Ivey Purchasing Managers Index BoC Interest Rate Decision, IR Statement  
AUSGovernor Lowe’s Speech, House Price IndexWestpac Consumer Confidence   

Correlation Table

DXY

Major Pairs

USD/JPY

Last Close: 104.19

Trend Chart: Short

Price Basket: Short

Yield Curve: Long

12/06 (red) vs 11/30

CoT:

  • USD – Short
  • YEN – Long

Key Levels:

  • Resistance – 105.06
  • Support – 103.40

Central Banks Stance:

  • FED – Dovish (Short)
  • BoJ – Dovish (Long)

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.66, 0.71

Geopolitical Risk :

  • USA – Presidential transition, stimulus talks
  • JPN – Trade tensions

Overall Outlook: Short

GBP/USD

Last Close: 1.3440

Trend Chart: Neutral

Price Basket: Neutral

Yield Curve: Short

12/02 (red) vs 11/30

CoT:

  • GBP – Short
  • USD – Long

Key Levels:

  • Resistance – 1.3540
  • Support – 1.3065

Central Banks Stance:

  • BoE – Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0142, 0.0149

Geopolitical Risk:

  • UK – Brexit Negotiations

Overall Outlook: Neutral

Commodity Pairs

USD/CAD

Last Close: 1.2784

Trend Chart: Short

Price Basket: Long

Yield Curve: Neutral

12/03 (green) vs 11/30

CoT:

  • USD – Short
  • CAD – Long

Key Levels:

  • Resistance – 1.3233
  • Support – 1.2778

Central Banks Stance:

  • BoC: Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0092, 0.0097

Commodity Stance:

  • Metals: Short
  • Oil/Energy: Short

Geopolitical Risk: N/A

Overall Outlook: Neutral

AUD/USD

Last Close: 0.7426

Trend Chart: Long

Price Basket: Long

Yield Curve: Neutral

12/03 (red) vs 11/30

CoT:

  • AUD: Neutral
  • USD: Short

Key Levels:

  • Resistance: 0.7449
  • Support: 0.7213

Central Banks Stance:

  • RBA: Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0060, 0.0064

Commodity Stance:

  • Metals: Long

Geopolitical Risk: N/A

Overall Outlook: Long

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