Currency Outlook Week of 11/23/2020

Consolidated Calendar.

 11/23/202011/24/202011/25/202011/26/202011/27/2020
USAConsumer Confidence Jobless Claims, GDP Annualized, Capital Goods, Durable Goods, New Home Sales (MoM), Michigan CSI, FOMC Minutes 
JPN Governor Kuroda Speech CPI (YoY) 
UKMarkit Services PMI   
CAN     
AUSTrade Balance    

Correlation Table

DXY

Major Pairs

USD/JPY

Last Close: 103.86

Trend Chart: Short

Price Basket: Short

Yield Curve: Short

11/19 (red) vs 11/13

CoT:

  • USD – Short
  • YEN – Short

Key Levels:

  • Resistance – 105.39
  • Support – 103.28

Central Banks Stance:

  • FED – Dovish (Short)
  • BoJ – Dovish (Long)

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.62, 0.67

Geopolitical Risk :

  • USA – Presidential transition, Stimulus talks
  • JPN – Trade tensions

Overall Outlook: Long

GBP/USD

Last Close: 1.3284

Trend Chart: Neutral

Price Basket: Neutral

Yield Curve: Long

11/18 (red) vs 11/13

CoT:

  • GBP – Short
  • USD – Long

Key Levels:

  • Resistance – 1.3295
  • Support – 1.2979

Central Banks Stance:

  • BoE – Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0079, 0.0083

Geopolitical Risk:

  • UK – Brexit Negotiations

Overall Outlook: Short

Commodity Pairs

USD/CAD

Last Close: 1.3094

Trend Chart: Neutral

Price Basket: Long

Yield Curve: Neutral

11/19 (green) vs 11/13

CoT:

  • USD – Short
  • CAD – Long

Key Levels:

  • Resistance – 1.3263
  • Support – 1.2938

Central Banks Stance:

  • BoC: Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0074 0.0077

Commodity Stance:

  • Metals: Short
  • Oil/Energy: Neutral

Geopolitical Risk: N/A

Overall Outlook: Long

AUD/USD

Last Close: 0.7304

Trend Chart: Neutral

Price Basket: Neutral

Yield Curve: Neutral

11/19 (green) vs 11/13

CoT:

  • AUD: Neutral
  • USD: Long

Key Levels:

  • Resistance: 0.7303
  • Support: 0.7122

Central Banks Stance:

  • RBA: Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0058, 0.0060

Commodity Stance:

  • Metals: Long

Geopolitical Risk: N/A

Overall Outlook: Short

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