Currency Outlook Week of 1/18/2021

Consolidated Calendar

 01/18/202101/19/202101/20/202101/21/202101/22/2021
USA  Buliding Permits, Initial ClaimsExisting Home Sales
JPN  BoJ Interest Rate Decision, BoJ Policy Statement BoJ Press Conference, National CPI 
UK  CPI, Retail Price IndexMarkit PMI
CAN  BoC CPI, BoC Interest Rate Decision, BoC Rate Statement, BoC Policy Report, BoC Press Conference Retail Sales
AUS  Employment Change, Unemployment RateRetail Sales, Commonwealth Bank PMI 

Correlation Table

DXY

Major Pairs

USD/JPY

Last Close: 103.88

Trend Chart: Short

Price Basket: Short

Yield Curve: Neutral

1/14 (green) vs 1/8

CoT:

  • USD – Short
  • YEN – Long

Key Levels:

  • Resistance – 104.23
  • Support – 102.64

Central Banks Stance:

  • FED – Dovish (Short)
  • BoJ – Dovish (Long)

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 057, 0.61

Overall Outlook: Short

GBP/USD

Last Close: 1.3589

Trend Chart: Long

Price Basket: Neutral

Yield Curve: Long

1/13 9 (teal) vs 1/8

CoT:

  • GBP – Long
  • USD – Short

Key Levels:

  • Resistance – 1.3715
  • Support – 1.3303

Central Banks Stance:

  • BoE – Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0135, 0.0143

Overall Outlook: Long

Commodity Pairs

USD/CAD

Last Close: 1.2731

Trend Chart: Short

Price Basket: Neutral

Yield Curve: Neutral

1/14 (teal) vs 1/8

CoT:

  • USD – Short
  • CAD – Long

Key Levels:

  • Resistance – 1.2949
  • Support – 1.2631

Central Banks Stance:

  • BoC: Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0115, 0.0124

Commodity Stance:

  • Metals: Long
  • Oil/Energy: Short

Overall Outlook: Short

AUD/USD

Last Close: 0.7702

Trend Chart: Long

Price Basket: Neutral

Yield Curve: Long

CoT:

  • AUD: Long
  • USD: Short

Key Levels:

  • Resistance: 0.7822
  • Support: 0.7489

Central Banks Stance:

  • RBA: Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0096, 0.0101

Commodity Stance:

  • Metals: Short

Overall Outlook: Long

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