Currency Coverage Week of 11/2/2020

Consolidated Calendar

11/02/202011/03/202011/04/202011/05/202011/06/2020
USAISM Manufacturing PMIPresidential ElectionADP Employment Change, Trade Balance, ISM Services PMIInitial Jobless Claims, Fed Policy Statement, Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Press ConferenceNonfarm Payrolls
JPN BoJ Policy Meeting Minutes   
UK    BoE Asset Purchase Facility, BoE Interest Rate Decision, BoE Monetary Policy Summary, BoE Minutes, BoE Governor Bailey Speech, BoE MPC Votes 
CAN    Unemployment Rate, BoC Macklem Speech, Ivey Purchasing Manager’s Index
AUSRBA Interest Rate Decision, RBA Rate StatementRetail Sales (MoM)Trade BalanceRBA Policy Statement 

Correlation Table

DXY

Major Pairs

USD/JPY

Last Close: 104.62

Trend Chart: Short

Price Basket: Short

Yield Curve: Short

10/29 (red) vs 10/22

CoT:

  • USD – Short
  • YEN – Long

Key Levels:

  • Resistance – 105.42
  • Support – 104.60

Central Banks Stance:

  • FED – Dovish (Short)
  • BoJ – Dovish (Long)

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.60, 0.63

Geopolitical Risk :

  • USA – Election results, trade tensions
  • JPN – Trade tensions

Overall Outlook: Long, on dollar strength if there is a Biden victory. If election results are contentious, dollar could also drop.

GBP/USD

Last Close: 1.2952

Trend Chart: Long

Price Basket: Short

Yield Curve: Long

10/28 (red) vs 10/21

CoT:

  • GBP – Short
  • USD – Long

Key Levels:

  • Resistance – 1.3117
  • Support – 1.2899

Central Banks Stance:

  • BoE – Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0126, 0.0136

Geopolitical Risk:

  • UK – Brexit Negotiations

Overall Outlook: Short, on dollar strength if there is a Biden victory. If election results are contentious, dollar could also drop.

Commodity Pairs

USD/CAD

Last Close: 1.3331

Trend Chart: Neutral

Price Basket: Neutral

Yield Curve: Neutral

10/29 (green) vs 10/22

CoT:

  • USD – Short
  • CAD – Long

Key Levels:

  • Resistance – 1.3376
  • Support – 1.3068

Central Banks Stance:

  • BoC: Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0118, 0.0128

Commodity Stance:

  • Metals: Long
  • Oil/Energy: Long

Geopolitical Risk: N/A

Overall Outlook: Long, on dollar strength if there is a Biden victory. If election results are contentious, dollar could also drop.

AUD/USD

Last Close: 0.7139

Trend Chart: Short

Price Basket: Short

Yield Curve: Long

10/29 (green) vs 10/22

CoT:

  • AUD: Long
  • USD: Long

Key Levels:

  • Resistance: 0.7162
  • Support: 0.7018

Central Banks Stance:

  • RBA: Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0083, 0.0092

Commodity Stance:

  • Metals: Long

Geopolitical Risk: N/A

Overall Outlook: Short, on dollar strength if there is a Biden victory. If election results are contentious, dollar could also drop.

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