Currency Coverage Week of 10/19/2020

Consolidated Calendar

Date10/19/202010/20/202010/21/202010/22/202010/23/2020
USA FED Chair Powell speech Building Permits, Housing Starts Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, Presidential Debate 
JPN   National CPI 
GB  CPIGovernor Bailey’s SpeechMarket PMI
CAN  Retail Sales, Consumer CPI 
AUS RBA Meeting Minutes  Retail Sales 

Correlation Table

DXY

Major Pairs

USD/JPY

Last Close: 105.41

Trend Chart: Short

Price Basket: Neutral

Yield Curve: Neutral

10/15 (green) vs 10/8

CoT:

  • USD: Long
  • YEN: Short

Key Levels:

  • Resistance: 106.65
  • Support: 105.21

Central Banks Stance:

  • FED – Dovish (Short)
  • BoJ – Dovish (Long)

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.48, 0.51

Geopolitical Risk

  • USA – Stimulus talks, election and debate status, trade tensions
  • JPN – Trade tensions

Overall Outlook: Neutral, could be a short breakout, but the currency is very volatile at the moment and sideways action is likely.

GBP/USD

Last Close: 1.2917

Trend Chart: Neutral

Price Basket: Short

Yield Curve: Short

10/14 (red) vs 10/07

CoT: Short

Key Levels:

  • Resistance: 1.3022
  • Support: 1.2837

Central Banks Stance:

  • BoE: Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0158, 0.0172

Geopolitical Risk:

  • UK: Brexit Negotiations

Overall Outlook: Short, Brexit negotiations seem to have fallen apart. However, if Boris Johnson gets called on a bluff, currency could appreciate instead.

Commodity Pairs

USD/CAD

Last Close: 1.3190

Trend Chart: Neutral

Price Basket: Short

Yield Curve: Short

10/15 (red) vs 10/08

CoT: Long

Key Levels:

  • Resistance: 1.3308
  • Support: 1.309

Central Banks Stance:

  • BoC: Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0079, 0.0087

Commodity Stance:

  • Metals: Short
  • Oil/Energy: Neutral

Geopolitical Risk: N/A

Overall Outlook: Short, more on dollar continuing to strengthen then CAD movements.

AUD/USD

Last Close: 0.7080

Trend Chart: Neutral

Price Basket: Short

Yield Curve: Long

10/15 (highlighted) vs 10/9

CoT:

  • AUD: Long
  • USD: Short

Key Levels:

  • Resistance: 0.7215
  • Support: 0.7084

Central Banks Stance:

  • RBA: Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0073, 0.0082

Commodity Stance:

  • Metals: Long

Geopolitical Risk: N/A

Overall Outlook: Short, the long bullish run seems to really be breaking down.

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