Currency Coverage Week of 10/12/2020

Consolidated Calendar

Date10/12/202010/13/202010/14/202010/15/202010/16/2020
USA CPI Jobless Claims, Debate Retail Sales, Michigan CSI JPY
JPY   Industrial Prod  
GBP Governor Bailey’s Speech Claimant Count Change, Unemployment Rate   
CAN   10/15 BoC Lane’s Speech 
AUS  Governor Lowe’s Speech, Employment Change, Employment Rate  

Correlation Table

DXY

Major Pairs

USD/JPY

Last Close: 105.62

Trend Chart: Short

Price Basket: Long

Yield Curve: Long

10/8 (highlighted) vs 10/2

CoT: Short

Key Levels:

  • Resistance: 105.69
  • Support: 105.61

Central Banks Stance:

  • FED – Dovish (Short)
  • BoJ – Dovish (Long)

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.47, 0.50

Geopolitical Risk

  • USA – Stimulus talks, election and debate status, trade tensions
  • JPN – New Prime Minister, trade tensions

Overall Outlook: Short, currency seems pretty independent of correlations.

GBP/USD

Last Close: 1.3046

Trend Chart: Neutral

Price Basket: Long

Yield Curve: Short

10/07 (highlighted) vs 10/02

CoT: Both Short

Key Levels:

  • Resistance: 1.3046
  • Support: 1.2970

Central Banks Stance:

  • BoE: Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0119, 0.0126

Geopolitical Risk:

  • UK: Brexit Negotiations

Overall Outlook: Long, but bad news on the Brexit front will override the current direction

Commodity Pairs

USD/CAD

Last Close: 1.3121

Trend Chart: Neutral

Price Basket: Short

Yield Curve: Short

10/8 (highlighted) vs 10/2

CoT: Both Short

Key Levels:

  • Resistance: 1.3357
  • Support: 1.3196

Central Banks Stance:

  • BoC: Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0082, 0.0096

Commodity Stance:

  • Metals: Short
  • Oil/Energy: Short

Geopolitical Risk: N/A

Overall Outlook: Short, but mindful that the low of the year was around 1.2950, which we are near.

AUD/USD

Last Close: 0.7241

Trend Chart: Neutral

Price Basket: Long

Yield Curve: Short

10/8 (highlighted) vs 10/2

CoT: Long

Key Levels:

  • Resistance: 0.7245
  • Support: 0.7130

Central Banks Stance:

  • RBA: Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0081, 0.0089

Commodity Stance:

  • Metals: Long

Geopolitical Risk: N/A

Overall Outlook: Long, but mindful of this years high of 0.7411

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