Currency Coverage 10/05/2020

Consolidated Calendar

10/05/202010/06/202010/07/202010/08/202010/09/2020
USAPMITrade Balance, JOLTS Jobs, Chairman Powell SpeechFOMC MinutesInitial Claims 
JPY  Current Account  
GBP    Manufacturing Prod, Industrial Prod, GDP (MoM)
CAN  Ivey Purchasing Managers IndexGovernor Maclam SpeechUnemployment Rate, Change in Employment 
AUSTrade Balance, RBA Interest Rate Release Budget Release   

DXY

Major Pairs

USD/JPY

Last Close: 105.32

Trend Chart: Short

Price Basket: Short

Yield Curve: Neutral/Mixed

10/1 (highlighted) vs 9/25

CoT: Short

Key Levels:

  • Resistance: 106.94, 105.69
  • Support: 104.92

Central Banks Stance:

  • FED – Dovish (Short)
  • BoJ – Dovish (Long)

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.53, 0.58

Geopolitical Risk

  • USA – President has Covid-19, US election approaches, US-China trade tensions
  • JPN – New Prime Minister, Trade tensions

Overall Outlook: Long, though BoJ currency intervention is strong market force

GBP/USD

Last Close: 1.2936

Trend Chart: Neutral

Price Basket: Short

Yield Curve: Long

9/30 (Highlighted) vs 9/25

CoT: Both Short

Key Levels:

  • Resistance: 1.2963, 1.2940
  • Support: 1.2763

Central Banks Stance:

  • BoE: Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0154, 0.0164

Geopolitical Risk:

  • UK: Brexit Negotiations

Overall Outlook: Short, but currently in bullish breakout

Commodity Pairs

USD/CAD

Last Close: 1.3307

Trend Chart: Neutral

Price Basket: Short

Yield Curve: Long

CoT: Both Short

Key Levels:

  • Resistance: 1.3392, 1.3373
  • Support: 1.3282, 1.3210

Central Banks Stance:

  • BoC: Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0083, 0.0091

Commodity Stance:

  • Metals: Short
  • Oil/Energy: Short

Geopolitical Risk: N/A

Overall Outlook: Long, especially if commodity prices stay depressed

AUD/USD

Last Close: 0.7162

Trend Chart: Neutral

Price Basket: Long

Yield Curve: Long

10/1 (Highlighted) vs 9/25

CoT: Long

Key Levels:

  • Resistance: 0.7377, 0.7231
  • Support: 0.7016, 0.7046

Central Banks Stance:

  • RBA: Dovish

5-Day ADR (80, 95 confidence intervals): 0.0066, 0.0069

Commodity Stance:

  • Metals: Short

Geopolitical Risk: N/A

Overall Outlook: Neutral

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