Summary: We close out April on strong negative market sentiment, with the S & P 500 losing 10% over the course of the month. The Nasdaq has had its worst month since 2018. Volatility caused by recession anxiety are headlined by a prolonged Russian war in Ukraine, continued increasing inflation expectations and fears of the … Read more
Summary: Through the lens of lagged economic data, we see a picture of an economy with a tight labor environment, high consumer demand and a strong housing market. Not too many data releases last over the last month, but there was enough confirmation for the FED to begin rate hikes as expected. FED balance sheet … Read more
Summary: The Russian invasion of Ukraine has skewed markets towards volatility, inflation and uncertainty. An indeterminate resolution that drags over weeks or months will increase the likelihood of long standing impact to markets. Parsing out the unknowable resolution to the war in Ukraine, we see a US economy that is continuing to push towards normalization. … Read more
Summary: Data shows a US recovery that is mostly past the pandemic. Certain indicators are still showing depressed levels, but recovery is undeniable. With inflation hitting wages, transitory arguments weaken, prompting a need for rate hikes. However, given the unprecedented level of both fiscal and monetary stimulus that was injected into the system, the effects … Read more