Summary: Looking at the Feds dual mandates of price stability and employment, the arrow still points towards a need to act against inflation. The tight labor market points to a late cycle economy with core inflation increasing 6.3% in the last release. There could be an argument made that the deflationary gains we have seen … Read more
Upcoming Data Releases: Weekly Headlines: Chinese Lunar New Year activity brings optimism of renewed global normal. US and Germany commit to sending heavy tanks to support Ukraine. US earnings continue to drive equity markets higher with a 65% of companies beating expectations. Tech layoffs continue. Flows: Charts Equity continues to push higher while bonds stall. … Read more
Upcoming Data Releases: Weekly Headlines: World Economic Forum took place in Davos over this week. US Treasury begins taking special measures to prevent debt default after debt ceiling is hit. There is bipartisan agreement to the US will not default, however it seems like there will be negotiations on the matter. In data releases, Chinese … Read more
Upcoming Data Releases: Weekly Headlines: Brazil has its own January 6th moment to protest the election of Lula. Protests in France over the increase in retirement age to 64 by the year 2030. Russian forces claim to seize control of Soledar, as Russian military generals shuffled again. In data releases, US CPI comes in spot … Read more
Upcoming Data Releases: Weekly Headlines: Eurozone inflation tends to come in below consensus. 15 rounds of voting over the course of 1 week is requires to elect the House Majority Speaker. Leak forces the announcement of 18,000 job cuts at Amazon. US jobs data comes in softer than previous releases, but all remain above consensus … Read more
Upcoming Data Releases: Weekly Headlines: This week was dominated by central bank policy. Weeks sets up on another downside inflation surprise in the US, with annual core inflation coming in at 6% and total inflation at 7.1%. Market euphoria was short-lived however, as a the FED reiterated its commitment to keep tightening and warning of … Read more
Upcoming Data Releases: Weekly Headlines: China’s covid easing continues at slow pace. German police arrest members of an extremist group plotting to overthrow the state. US secures release of Brittany Griner from Russia in exchange for Viktor Bout. US Non-manufacturing PMI comes in hotter than forces, while PPI slightly above consensus. Chinese Balance of Trade … Read more
Summary: Markets continue to look for daily stimulus amidst a macroeconomic environment in the process of regime shift. Pivot narratives live and die by month to month data releases despite the ability of underlying economic actors to grind on and on simply from the momentum generated by such massive systems. Recessions are seemingly universally agreed … Read more
Upcoming Data Releases: Weekly Headlines: Protests in China over covid policies signal to markets that stronger covid easing messaging from the CCP more likely. Latter half of week dominated by banker speeches and US economic releases. Powell speech Wednesday squeezed markets higher as pivot hopes continue. ADP jobs also painted a much weaker labor market … Read more
Upcoming Data Releases: Weekly Headlines: Missile strikes Poland, killing 2, while G20 leaders attend summit in Bali. There remains contention as to the source of the missile. UK embarks on £55bn austerity plan. Republicans secure control of the House. Layoffs in tech continue to grab headlines. US PPI slightly below expectations, in line with last … Read more