Weekly Headlines: US inflation data higher than expected on Tuesday causing market sell off. Retail sales data release above estimates. US rail unions reach deal to avert rail strike. Upcoming Data Releases: Broad sell off occurs. Bonds finding lower lows, equities back to ytd lows. Commodity prices lower, but ranges remain strong. Fred curve shows … Read more
Weekly Headlines: US Non-manufacturing PMI comes in above forecast. Ukraine counteroffensive continues to find success. ECB raises rates by 75 bps. Nord Stream 1 pipeline remains shut. Upcoming Data Releases: Relief in bond and equity markets this week, however, commodity prices continue to correlate with positive market sentiment. Dollar softens this week. Commodity prices up … Read more
Weekly Headlines: ISM Manufacturing PMI in higher than consensus, as did Nonfarm Payrolls. Unemployment levels rise to 3.7%. Upcoming Data Releases: All asset classes sell of in tracked indices. Bloomberg reports on first global bond bear market in a generation. Commodities sell off across the board. Yield curve has a parallel shift higher. 2-10 spread … Read more
Summary: Inflation softened somewhat in July 2022, prompting hopes of a FED pivot. 12-month PCE dropped back to 6.3%, from our peak levels (so far) of 6.8%. The FED’s target inflation level is 2%. Some tailwinds for a inflation levels dropping are unfortunately headwinds for economic growth. In this month’s releases, we see slowdowns in … Read more
Watch this weeks review here: https://youtu.be/FeNW8z3db0U Weekly Headlines: Biden-Harris Student Debt Relief Plan announced on Wednesday, which includes student loan forgiveness up to $20,000 and expansion of grant programs. Markets slid Friday as FED Chairman reiterates inflation as the highest priority for the central bank, ending hopes of policy pivot. US and China reach audit … Read more
Watch this weeks review here: https://youtu.be/ErdYAu99VAQ Weekly Headlines: Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 signed into law. US Building Permits comes in slightly above consensus estimates while Housing Starts come in slightly below expectations. Retail sales growth was unchanged. Upcoming Data Releases: *Index data provider missing Friday, 8/19/2022, prices at time of writing. Global asset prices … Read more
Watch this weeks review here: https://youtu.be/fKWXUeMIB1w Weekly Headlines: Biden signs CHIPS Act and Congress approves Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, clearing way for passage. Inflation and PPI data come in at or better than expectation. SP500 posts a full month of weekly gains. Upcoming Data Releases: Bond rally stalls as equities continue to post … Read more
Watch this weeks review here: https://youtu.be/2eujFYmeltU Weekly Headlines: BoE delivers statement rate hike alongside grim guidance, US Non Farm payrolls crushes expectations at 528k vs 250k consensus estimate. Quiet week in markets, with essentially unchanged values in equity and bond indices, slight downtick in commodity. New jobs postings on indeed.com continue to decline, reverting to … Read more
Summary: Primary narrative continues to be inflation. The FED continues to fight inflation with rate hikes, and markets pricing in FED capitulation sometime in early 2023. While inflation seems unaffected so far, economic growth has slowed. Consumer credit growth is slowing, certain spending areas are declining, and savings are going back up. Both business and … Read more
Watch this weeks review here: https://youtu.be/m-SREARZ5mU Weekly Headlines: FED hikes rates 75 bps. Second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth in the US. Personal Spending in June comes in high at 1.1%. Summer market rally continues to power on in spite of US data releases. Commodity prices up across the board. Jobs listings crater. Given … Read more